My Oscar Picks

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who I think should win: Adriana Barraza – BABEL. She was outstanding as a housekeeper who gets stuck at the U.S. - Mexico border with the children she's supposed to watch.

Who will probably win: Jennifer Hudson – DREAMGIRLS. Since it didn't get nominated for best picture, my guess is that Dreamgirls will take many of the other categories for which it's nominated.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Who I think should win: Alan Arkin – LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. He had me in stitches the whole time he was on screen.

Who will probably win: Eddie Murphy – DREAMGIRLS. First time nomination (I think), and he's famous. Think: Sean Connery in The Untouchables.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE

This one is a total shot in the dark, but here's my guess:

Who might win: Meryl Streep – THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA. She's an academy favorite, and plays a smarmy bitch -- something a talented actress can have a lot of fun with.

Who will probably win: Helen Mirren – THE QUEEN. She was already honored for Elizabeth I, so it's not a stretch. Plus, the Academy loves characters based on real people.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE

Again, a shot in the dark.

Who I think should win: Forest Whitaker – THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND. And I think he will win, too. He's a talented actor, long overdue for an award. And he's playing a famous person.

BEST DIRECTOR

Who I think should win: Paul Greengrass - UNITED 93. He did an amazing job on this film. It was gripping and tense, but also thoughtful and appropriate.

Who will probably win: Martin Scorsese - THE DEPARTED. He's long overdue, and the movie was popular. Though, I still wish he had won for Goodfellas.

BEST PICTURE

Who I think should win: Letters from Iwo Jima. The second part of an epic saga, masterfully crafted.

Who will probably win: The Departed. With Dreamgirls out of the way, this could be Scorsese's year.